Soccer is the most popular sport bet in the world. How to start betting? What are the basic principles and terminology of online betting? How to make money in soccer betting? How to use online betting tips? If you are a beginner and looking for answers, this is the right article to start with.
1. Decide on your maximum budget.
First, decide about you maximum betting budget. On the one hand, a budget that is too high may result in personal bankruptcy. On the other hand, a small budget might limit you a bit. Following the rules of this article and placing the right wagers will reduce the risk of high losses almost to zero. The “rule of thumb” for a beginner’s maximum budget is EUR 1000.
2. Decide on your maximum bet.
Placing all your money on one bet would not work. Only distributing the risk between multiple games will result in profits. Thus, limiting your maximum bet will increase your chances to win. For a beginner’s maximum bet is EUR 20.
3. Choose the correct betting category.
Start betting on two basic categories only: Full Time Result and Total Under/Over 2.5 goals. Full Time Result means selecting one of three possible game outcomes: Home Win, Draw or Away Win. Total Under/Over 2.5 means selecting whether the total number of goals scored in a match will be under or over 2.5. Advanced statistical models have proven that betting on those two categories is the most effective.
4. Understand the outcome probabilities.
The probabilities of match outcome are usually defined in the range between 0% (no chance) and 100% (a sure bet). For example, the Full Time Outcome Probabilities may be as follows: Home Win = 60%, Draw = 15%, Away Win = 25%. And the Total Under/Over 2.5 Probabilities: Under 2.5 = 45%, Over 2.5 = 55%. The sum of all Full Time Outcome Probabilities must be equal to 100%, since one of these three outcomes will indeed take place. The sum of Total Under/Over 2.5 Probabilities must be equal to 100% too, since the total number of goals scored during any soccer match will be either under or over 2.5. In other words, the probability of any outcome expresses your belief in this outcome, scaled between 0% and 100%. Probabilities are also widely known as “betting tips” or “predictions”, and can be found on the web.
5. Understand the “Fixed Odds” market.
Bookmakers define fixed odds for each of the Full Time and Under/Over 2.5 outcomes. For example, the Full Time outcomes odds can be: Home Win = 1.5, Draw = 3.6, Away Win = 5.8. That means that if you place $EUR100 on Home Win and win, you will get EUR100 * 1.5 = EUR150 from the bookmaker. If not, you lose your EUR100. Thus, odds are basically your stake multiplier, and you interested in the highest odds for the outcome you bet on.
6. Understand the connection between odds and probabilities.
Given the odds above, try calculating their inverse: 1/1.5, 1/3.6, 1/5.8, and multiply by 100%. You will get the probabilities of bookmaker for the given outcome: Home Win = 66%, Draw = 27%, Away Win = 17%. Unfortunately, when you calculate their sum as in the previous example, you will not get 100%, but 110%. The 10% difference represents the commissions that the bookmaker adds to the odds. Subtracting 10%/3 from the three above will give you the exact bookies’ probabilities: Home Win = 63%, Draw = 24%, Away Win = 13%.
7. Choose a bookmaker.
The best bookmaker for you is the bookmaker with the highest odds for the outcome you choose to bet on. Betting tips websites will generally offer you a list of bookmakers and their odds for each game. You may choose the bookmaker with the highest odds and register in order to place your stake.
8. Compare the odds and your betting probabilities.
A well known way to compare bookmakers’ odds and your probabilities is simply by multiplying among them. If you get a high value for some outcome, it means you have a good chance for profit. However, if your predictions are inaccurate, your calculation of the outcome’s potential might be wrong. For example, if the bookies’ odds are set to be: Home Win = 1.5, Draw = 3.6, Away Win = 5.8 and the tips you found on the web are: Home Win = 60%, Draw = 15%, Away Win = 25%, then multiplying results in the following potential for each outcome: Home Win = 1.5 * 60% = 0.9, Draw = 3.6 * 15% = 0.54, Away Win = 5.8 * 25%=1.45. You can see that in this case, the potential of Away Win is the highest. Unfortunately, the probability of Away Win = 25% and thus, if you decide betting on Away Win, your chances to win will be only 25%.
9. Find a stake with high winning potential.
The “rule of thumb” is: place a stake on the outcomes with odds that are higher than 3 and a probability that is higher than 40%. In this case, the value of the outcome will be 1.3. This is how you calculate the stake: Stake = 1/100 * Budget * (Probability – (100%-Probability) / (Odds-1)). For example, when Odds for Home Win = 3.0, the Probability of Home Win = 40% and Budget = EUR1000, the stake you have to place will be: Stake = 1/100 * $1000 * (40% – (100%-40%) / (3-1)) = EUR100. Since the maximal sum allowed is EUR50, this will be your stake. If the calculated stake is less than 0, don’t bet.
10. Consider the unpredictable factors.
Try taking into account the following factors, which might influence the predictions. Match type: International / national league, a cup, or a friendly game. Cups’/friendly games’ predictions are usually incorrect. Match priority: since a team’s resources are not unlimited, each team defines priority for the forthcoming matches. Be careful not to bet on the low priority matches. Match time: remember that predictions are usually inaccurate at the beginning and at the end of the season. Players’ injuries, illnesses and transfers might change the predictions significantly, especially in the cases of key players.
11. Place a stake with the best bookmaker you have found for selected game.